9.1 CAN EVOLUTION BE FALSIFIED

1. The second law of thermodynamics is based on the observable fact that everything made of atoms tends towards its most probable state. It is the basis of the relentless decay we see all around us. What it actually says is that in any large group of atoms (system) isolated from interference from outside, the quantitative measure of that decay called entropy will increase.
2. Boltzman and Gibbs discovered an expression for entropy which reveals probability is the real driving force behind the second law.. [ s = k Log W where W is called the thermodynamic probability, it is the number of microstates in any given macrostate and k is the Boltzman constant ]. There is another equation for 's' based on temperature and heat flow but it is a special case and where calculable the two are equivalent. There is only one entropy.
3. The second law does not say that entropy cannot decrease, it happens in many cases like the growth of living things, cooling inside a refrigerator or the chance deal of a royal flush. However all such decreases have to be paid for by a bigger increase in the surroundings. The last one is most significant in this context because it is an increase in logical improbability. In fact as an ordered set it is a macrostate with only one microstate and the least likely of any arrangement of 7 playing cards.
4. We know the minimum (entropy) price to get a specific 7 card royal flush from a well shuffled deck is the work of shuffling and dealing 52C7 (133 million) hands. This is the long term average number of deals to get this result. Note it is irrelevant that you might just get that royal flush on the very first deal it is the act of doing it repeatedly that gives the required entropy cost. The second law has nothing to say about single events nor do they matter.
5. We do not need to know the actual measure of the entropy drop of the 7 card royal flush itself. However shuffling and dealing 133 million hands will generate quite a lot of heat and is the measure of the entropy cost required by that system to get that outcome. The fact that the smoky saloon is not a strictly isolated system, notwithstanding untoward card tricks, is isolated enough from card changing type events.

Richard Feynman said “If you cannot explain your theory to a person waiting at a bus stop.. you don't understand your theory.” I am trying.. see next page.

Have a very nice day..

8.2 A Truth You Might Not Want to Know

Proteins in all their myriad forms are the semantic equivalent of tools, machine parts and machines themselves. In engineering terms this is just the bio form of technology. Functional proteins range from just 11 amino acids (casein) to several hundreds. Take myoglobin an oxygen storage molecule residing in the muscle tissue of mammals. The logical improbability of its DNA (codon set) is 1e338. From 7.2 we know the second law applies to the evolutionary process on earth but lets go right over the top and consider the whole universe, can it pay the entropy debt of myoglobin? The universe is estimated to contain 1e80 atoms and be 14 billion years old which is 1e20 milliseconds. Now lets calculate the total event capacity of the universe, 1e80 x 1e20 = 1e100 (atom milliseconds). That figure is the maximum event capacity of the entire universe, its ability to do random trials or from the foregoing its entropy bank balance. It means that any state of matter with a logical improbability exceeding that figure cannot be the result of a series of random events without implying a net decrease in entropy contravening the second law. Selection and reproduction can bias the outcome to reduce the total improbability of the outcome and this must be accounted for in any model.

Myoglobin exists in a number of slightly variant forms in different creatures some by just a single amino acid. This has been described as a measure of the evolutionary distance between these types. This is misleading because it ignores functional differences between variant species which may require different myoglobins and if so would not change the logical improbability of any one molecule. They are all highly improbable molecules and the question is can they be the result of random mutation with selection. The only alternative is of course a non-random process – a creation event!

The result is partially verified in the Wikipedia topic 'Evolutionary Algorithm' ie the actual test of the algorithm, viz..

“Techniques from evolutionary algorithms applied to the modeling of biological evolution are generally limited to explorations of microevolutionary processes, however some computer simulations, such as Tierra and Avida, attempt to model macroevolutionary dynamics.”

You may note the goal of the random creation of semantic information (macroevolution) by modelling mutation and natural selection has not been achieved. It will never be achieved if it is shown to be a violation of the second law.

Have a really nice day..

8.1 A Truth You Might Not Want to Know

Recall 7.4 above, a codon (triplet) of DNA has a logical improbability of 512 (ie there are 512 possible arrangements using the alphabet of DNA {A, T, C, G} and {L or R} handedness or chirality. Since DNA is semantic information each codon is also an ordered string meaning it is a macrostate with only one microstate (W=1). From my previous pages you should appreciate that the entropy cost of a single codon of DNA is the requirement for enough random events to give that specific sequence repeatedly when averaged over a very large number of events. The answer of course is 512, that's not the entropy change itself but the expenditure required to pay the entropy debt for that improbable state by pure random change.

Protein only accounts for about 5% of all the DNA and the rest is 'junk' according to evolutionists, except we now know the only junk was that assumption! As far as coding for amino acids to build protein goes there is a lot of redundancy built into the system ie more than one codon will give the same amino acid. Which is a smart way of reducing the genome's exposure to some random mutations. Since I am going to be concentrating on protein I must account for that redundancy so the improbability of a correct codon is less than 512. There are just 20 'L' form or left handed amino acids, all the rest of the combinations are redundant. Some amino acids have 6 codons which all give the same result and some only one. So the actual improbability (number of possibilities) of a codon (producing a specific amino acid) is on average (4^3)/(3.15 = avge redundancy) x 2^3 = 162 (its not exactly 160 because of the 3 non coding stop bits).

DNA is the vehicle of heritable traits so the analysis must be done at that level rather than the level of the protein itself to properly address the evolutionary algorithm. The charility or handedness of all DNA bases {R form} cannot be ignored, even though random mutations do not affect charility. The protein machinery of the cell which exclusively produces {R form} DNA bases is also a product of the evolutionary algorithm by that theory so the entropy cost of that aspect of the end state must be included in the total calculation.

So for myoglobin with 153 amino acids the improbability at the DNA codon level is 162^153 = 10^338 (written 1e338). The question is can the evolutionary process account for this?

I do hope you have a very nice day..

7.5 Evolution and Entropy

I had a long discussion with a mathematician who turned out to be a NASA rocket scientist! He said the outcome of any random event is only improbable if you are trying to specify it beforehand. If you shake 100 dice in a box you are certain to get something and whatever it is would be just as impossible to predict. True but what are the implications of this for evolution?

1. You don't care what outcome you get
2. Natural selection avoids the rules of cumulative probability over a long series of events by biasing less probable outcomes to produce a result not attainable without it
3. It does not matter how many possibilities there are.

Which leads to the idea that any change toward preservation however small will through population demographics will tend to get preserved and that is all you need for evolution. Well not quite..

The first implies that during the course of design (or evolution) there is no point where prior specification will become necessary, demonstrating ignorance of technology. The second implies you can make the impossible possible, demonstrating ignorance of probability. The third implies the second law has nothing to say about the process, demonstrating ignorance of physics, which is all rather disappointing for a rocket scientist I would think!

To take the first, all technology (machines) are based on cooperating parts with complex interfaces implying constrains on the interfaces for all parts of the machine. The constraints get tighter as the design progresses. It is just as true of biotechnology as for the man made kind even mouse traps.

As for the second it is a basic axiom of probability that for two or more independent events the probability of a particular outcome is the product of their individual probabilities. It is not affected by the time it takes or the order of the events or anything you do after the event.

On the third, if its made of atoms the second law applies no exceptions (refer 7.2). It is universally acknowledged any process resulting in an entropy drop is like a debt which must be payed for with interest. It is scientifically fraudulent to admit the staggering improbability of biotechnology and fail to account for the entropy debt or brush it off with ignorant statements about floods of energy.

So my task here is really about whether or not evolution passes this test or heaven forbid is actually falsified by the test!

Have a cuppa.. or something stronger.. and a very nice day..

7.4 Evolution and Entropy

Before we look at the entropy cost of a string of DNA or its protein we need to make an important observation about our accounting of logical improbability. When we examine the 3 dice in the box the macrostate {123} without order has 6 microstates by noting the identity of individual dice. The Boltzman-Gibbs thermodynamic probability 'W' also uses the identification of each particle in a system to account for all possible microstates. That is why W is such a huge number for any real system (ie for each macrostate every particle is swapped with every other particle creating a massive logical phase space). Effectively the value of 'W' for the {123} macrostate is 6 whereas for {666} it is just 1. But now if order is significant the macrostate {123} has like {666} only one microstate and hence the least possible probability and the smallest 'W'. Just one of a total 216 possibilities in this very simple case.

Now every string of codes being semantic information has three essential properties: They are

1. Non repeating
2. Non random
3. Ordered

Notwithstanding the fact that number 2 would appear to preclude any random process from assembling semantic information what we are really interested in is number 3. DNA being semantic information is ordered. Which means any meaningful string of DNA (such as codes for a specific protein) has the maximum improbability possible for any string of the same length (W = 1). Which means a string of DNA represents one out of the total logical phase space available when we identify each particle or in this case nucleic acid base. Allowing for redundancy in the human genome we may conservatively speak about a billion or 10^9 uniquely identified bases in the human genome!

Remembering that an increase in improbability is also a decrease in entropy we may now do some entropy accounting. We recall there are just 4 nucleic acid bases making up the alphabet of DNA, {A, T, C, G}. These molecules are also handed but in life only the R Form (right handed) is used even though roughly speaking both are equally likely and chemically equivalent. So just like our 3 dice a string of 3 DNA bases has a total number of possibilities or microstates of 4^3 x 2^3 = 8^3 = 512. Three DNA bases is called a codon and happens to code for one amino acid in a protein and being ordered it is a macrostate with only one microstate and an improbability of 512.

The calculation of the improbability (negative entropy) of any protein is now straight forward but some would ask, is it really improbable?

Have a cracking day..

7.3 Evolution and Entropy

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Now the question is simply this; Can evolutionary processes on earth afford to pay their entropy debts?

I have shown (refer ch 6) for a logicaly improbable state the negative entropy by the Boltzman-Gibbs equation must be accounted for by the performance of a sufficient number of trials to make that outcome possible. This is the real implication of that equation for the second law where the total number of possibilities (logical phase space) is so large as to preclude any average increase in improbability, complexity or order (for equivalence refer ch 5). So for a box of just 3 dice (system), of the 216 possible outcomes only 6 are tripples, 30 are pairs but 180 are composed of three different numbers. The average behaviour is a mathematical certainty, most outcomes will be 3 different numbers. However we may also see that for the entropy cost of 36 shakes we may get an unlikely triple! That is over many trials (random shakes) even 3 dice will obey the second law! Now consider 100 dice in the box, there are only 6 100's (same number) out of 6^100 possibilities. With just 10^80 atoms in the known universe you would be hard pressed to stray far from the average of 100/6 of each number, let alone get a 100 of any one number. The implication is clear, if any system with a very large number of logical possibilities (phase space) cannot do the necessary trials to make an improbable outcome possible (pay the entropy debt), we have an instance of a significant drop in entropy without the requisite increase in the surroundings and that is a violation of the second law! Meaning if you found the box with 100 6's face up you would be correct in concluding it did not occur by any random process.

DNA is the complete specification for the growth, reproduction, defence and repair of each life form. It includes specific codes for all its proteins which are the main functional molecules of the cell. Its instructions are read and acted on by a veriety of complex machines which themselves are made of protein. The driver of evolutionary change is random mutation of the DNA at the moment of reproduction, facilitating inheritance of new traits. It is well known that natural processes may produce most of the amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, now we need to know what is the cost in Boltzmann entropy of these logical states. The DNA contains semantic information (refer ch 4) by virtue of the ordering of the amino acids, as such it has a measurable Boltzmann absolute entropy.. (logical improbability).

Have a specially nice day..

7.2 Evolution & Entropy

Some authoritative quotes..

1. The Second Law is inviolable and inescapable..
   "The law that entropy always increases holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell's equations — then so much the worse for Maxwell's equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation — well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation." — Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington, The Nature of the Physical World (1927)
   
   
2. Life must obey the Second Law..
   Living organisms are biological machines which are also vast assemblies (or states) of matter and as such the second law applies to them. The processes by which they function, reproduce and grow creates order or an increase in complexity. That means a local reduction in entropy just like the cooling of a freezer box in the middle of a hot room. The second law requires the existance of an imaginary boundary around the process and enough of its surroundings to include everything affected by those processes. Within that boundary it will be found that there will be an overall increase in entropy. Experimental measurements show that the boundary need only approximate an isolated system for the calculation to work as predicted.
3. Evolution must obey the second law.. 
   Life processes like growth generate more disorder in their surroundings than that which they create, and the evolution of life itself does the same thing (parphrased from Peter Atkins Second Law). Evolution is the explanation for the general increase in complexity of the biosphere, but an increase in complexity is also a local drop in entropy. By the second law the same process must in a dependant manner account for that drop by creating a greater increase in entropy in its surroundings. If a chosen boundary for strict application of the law does not meet the entropy increase requirement it may simply be enlarged until it does even up to include the whole universe if necessary.

If life does not come from somewhere else then the processes which created it here must also pay for it here. If the system boundary is extended to include the whole universe (ie second law applies) it is invalid to balance negative entropy on earth by positive entropy from an unrelated process somewhere else. That means the second law must apply to the earth-sun system so to argue that because the earth is not an isolated system the second law does not apply is invalid.

Have a nice day..