I had a long discussion with a mathematician who turned out to be a NASA rocket scientist! He said the outcome of any random event is only improbable if you are trying to specify it beforehand. If you shake 100 dice in a box you are certain to get something and whatever it is would be just as impossible to predict. True but what are the implications of this for evolution?
- You don't care what outcome you get
- Natural selection avoids the rules of cumulative probability over a long series of events by biasing less probable outcomes to produce a result not attainable without it
- It does not matter how many possibilities there are.
Which leads to the idea that any change toward preservation however small will through population demographics will tend to get preserved and that is all you need for evolution. Well not quite..
The first implies that during the course of design (or evolution) there is no point where prior specification will become necessary, demonstrating ignorance of technology. The second implies you can make the impossible possible, demonstrating ignorance of probability. The third implies the second law has nothing to say about the process, demonstrating ignorance of physics, which is all rather disappointing for a rocket scientist I would think!
To take the first, all technology (machines) are based on cooperating parts with complex interfaces implying constrains on the interfaces for all parts of the machine. The constraints get tighter as the design progresses. It is just as true of biotechnology as for the man made kind even mouse traps.
As for the second it is a basic axiom of probability that for two or more independent events the probability of a particular outcome is the product of their individual probabilities. It is not affected by the time it takes or the order of the events or anything you do after the event.
On the third, if its made of atoms the second law applies no exceptions (refer 7.2). It is universally acknowledged any process resulting in an entropy drop is like a debt which must be payed for with interest. It is scientifically fraudulent to admit the staggering improbability of biotechnology and fail to account for the entropy debt or brush it off with ignorant statements about floods of energy.
So my task here is really about whether or not evolution passes this test or heaven forbid is actually falsified by the test!
Have a cuppa.. or something stronger.. and a very nice day..
Be inspired! Your logic is undeniable and extremely thought provoking. Your observations demand an explanation just as intelligible from those who would disagree with what you have put forward.
ReplyDeleteSo you play the entropy card eh? You are displaying a common misconception here, that random mutations in gene sequences are the same as evolution and natural selection. They are different and this talk about probabilities and thermodynamics DOES NOT apply. Natural selection is a mechanism of evolution, which is the NONRANDOM process by which biological traits become more or less prevalent in a population. Natural selection is the only cause of ADAPTION (that is consistently observed), but not the only case of evolution. There are also non-adaptive causes such as mutation, genetic drift, etc. We can also trace the timeline of evolutionary processes because most mutations in genes occur at a predictable rate due to errors (in protein function, coding, etc). Our molecular machinery is not 100% efficient, leading to errors and giving rise to mutations. However there are random mutations that do occur in addition to this. So evolution is not COMPLETELY governed by randomness or entropy.
ReplyDeleteThis is the GLARING FLAW to your "falsification of evolution" post on your blog.
If you are going to make a point so obvious it is a GLARING FLAW you must firstly stick to that point and then engage in something called CLEAR THINKING..
DeleteFirstly if its made of atoms the Second Law applies.. NO EXCEPTIONS.. Secondly the general expression for absolute entropy contains only one variable PROBABILITY.. (don't need to be Einstein to put those two together).. Thirdly gene sequences (DNA) are semantic information meaning they are non random, non repeating, ordered sets resulting in a very low entropy state.. which MUST be paid for by the process that got it there ie evolution.. based on heritable changes (result of mutation & genetic drift and an etc? whatever that is) and THEN natural selection does the non-random bit..
Mutations.. lets see now you said "there are RANDOM mutations".. implying there is such a thing as a NON RANDOM MUTATION.. please explain?
Finally how does natural selection affect or guide the process of change if it happens AFTER the change? If the change is RANDOM then sorry to say this but the THERMODYNAMICS and PROBABILITY have a great deal to say about it.. read the blog.