9.2 CAN EVOLUTION BE FALSIFICATION

6.   Semantic information is a non repeating, non random, ordered set and as such for any given length it is a macrostate with only one microstate or the least likely of any arrangement. DNA is semantic information and in relation to the specification of protein represents a decrease in Boltzmann entropy by virtue of its improbability. The size of the entropy drop is not important, it is the second law requirement for that process to balance the entropy books.

7.   Myoglobin was the first protein sequenced and has 153 (or 154) amino acids each coded by a 3 DNA based codon. The effective improbability of a codon is 162 counting chirality (handedness) and redundancy of codons. By the second law the evolutionary system that got it to that state must also pay for it which means the capacity for the execution of 153^162 = 10^338 random changes or mutations if selection and reproduction do not affect the improbability(1).

8.   Since the total event capacity of the universe is 10^100 atom milliseconds this would clearly be insufficient to cover the entropy debt for the myoglobin protein molecule. In truth the opportunities for mutation events capable of evolving such a state of matter as myoglobin are limited to the surface of planets like earth. To falsify the theory of evolution it is necessary to show the evolutionary process cannot pay the entropy debt for proteins like myoglobin.

9.   The entropy argument is saying that the number of possibilities (improbability) is by far too big for random mutations to string together the required series of complimentary beneficial changes. Lets look at another quote from the Wikipedia regarding what they call the Fitness Function concerning trying to 'evolve' an optimum truck delivery rout.

“Evolutionary optimization techniques are particularly useful in situations in which it is easy to determine the quality of a single solution, but hard to go through all possible solutions one by one (it is easy to determine the driving time for a particular route of the delivery truck, but it is almost impossible to check all possible routes once the number of destinations grows to more than a handful).”

(1) After correction (Feb 2016) the simple model I proposed in Dec 2015 has demonstrated that selection and replication reduce the improbability. [see Dr J verifies]

I do hope you have a nice day..

Mike Bellamy BE (Aero) UNSW 1972

9.1 CAN EVOLUTION BE FALSIFIED

1. The second law of thermodynamics is based on the observable fact that everything made of atoms tends towards its most probable state. It is the basis of the relentless decay we see all around us. What it actually says is that in any large group of atoms (system) isolated from interference from outside, the quantitative measure of that decay called entropy will increase.
2. Boltzman and Gibbs discovered an expression for entropy which reveals probability is the real driving force behind the second law.. [ s = k Log W where W is called the thermodynamic probability, it is the number of microstates in any given macrostate and k is the Boltzman constant ]. There is another equation for 's' based on temperature and heat flow but it is a special case and where calculable the two are equivalent. There is only one entropy.
3. The second law does not say that entropy cannot decrease, it happens in many cases like the growth of living things, cooling inside a refrigerator or the chance deal of a royal flush. However all such decreases have to be paid for by a bigger increase in the surroundings. The last one is most significant in this context because it is an increase in logical improbability. In fact as an ordered set it is a macrostate with only one microstate and the least likely of any arrangement of 7 playing cards.
4. We know the minimum (entropy) price to get a specific 7 card royal flush from a well shuffled deck is the work of shuffling and dealing 52C7 (133 million) hands. This is the long term average number of deals to get this result. Note it is irrelevant that you might just get that royal flush on the very first deal it is the act of doing it repeatedly that gives the required entropy cost. The second law has nothing to say about single events nor do they matter.
5. We do not need to know the actual measure of the entropy drop of the 7 card royal flush itself. However shuffling and dealing 133 million hands will generate quite a lot of heat and is the measure of the entropy cost required by that system to get that outcome. The fact that the smoky saloon is not a strictly isolated system, notwithstanding untoward card tricks, is isolated enough from card changing type events.

Richard Feynman said “If you cannot explain your theory to a person waiting at a bus stop.. you don't understand your theory.” I am trying.. see next page.

Have a very nice day..

8.2 A Truth You Might Not Want to Know

Proteins in all their myriad forms are the semantic equivalent of tools, machine parts and machines themselves. In engineering terms this is just the bio form of technology. Functional proteins range from just 11 amino acids (casein) to several hundreds. Take myoglobin an oxygen storage molecule residing in the muscle tissue of mammals. The logical improbability of its DNA (codon set) is 1e338. From 7.2 we know the second law applies to the evolutionary process on earth but lets go right over the top and consider the whole universe, can it pay the entropy debt of myoglobin? The universe is estimated to contain 1e80 atoms and be 14 billion years old which is 1e20 milliseconds. Now lets calculate the total event capacity of the universe, 1e80 x 1e20 = 1e100 (atom milliseconds). That figure is the maximum event capacity of the entire universe, its ability to do random trials or from the foregoing its entropy bank balance. It means that any state of matter with a logical improbability exceeding that figure cannot be the result of a series of random events without implying a net decrease in entropy contravening the second law. Selection and reproduction can bias the outcome to reduce the total improbability of the outcome and this must be accounted for in any model.

Myoglobin exists in a number of slightly variant forms in different creatures some by just a single amino acid. This has been described as a measure of the evolutionary distance between these types. This is misleading because it ignores functional differences between variant species which may require different myoglobins and if so would not change the logical improbability of any one molecule. They are all highly improbable molecules and the question is can they be the result of random mutation with selection. The only alternative is of course a non-random process – a creation event!

The result is partially verified in the Wikipedia topic 'Evolutionary Algorithm' ie the actual test of the algorithm, viz..

“Techniques from evolutionary algorithms applied to the modeling of biological evolution are generally limited to explorations of microevolutionary processes, however some computer simulations, such as Tierra and Avida, attempt to model macroevolutionary dynamics.”

You may note the goal of the random creation of semantic information (macroevolution) by modelling mutation and natural selection has not been achieved. It will never be achieved if it is shown to be a violation of the second law.

Have a really nice day..

8.1 A Truth You Might Not Want to Know

Recall 7.4 above, a codon (triplet) of DNA has a logical improbability of 512 (ie there are 512 possible arrangements using the alphabet of DNA {A, T, C, G} and {L or R} handedness or chirality. Since DNA is semantic information each codon is also an ordered string meaning it is a macrostate with only one microstate (W=1). From my previous pages you should appreciate that the entropy cost of a single codon of DNA is the requirement for enough random events to give that specific sequence repeatedly when averaged over a very large number of events. The answer of course is 512, that's not the entropy change itself but the expenditure required to pay the entropy debt for that improbable state by pure random change.

Protein only accounts for about 5% of all the DNA and the rest is 'junk' according to evolutionists, except we now know the only junk was that assumption! As far as coding for amino acids to build protein goes there is a lot of redundancy built into the system ie more than one codon will give the same amino acid. Which is a smart way of reducing the genome's exposure to some random mutations. Since I am going to be concentrating on protein I must account for that redundancy so the improbability of a correct codon is less than 512. There are just 20 'L' form or left handed amino acids, all the rest of the combinations are redundant. Some amino acids have 6 codons which all give the same result and some only one. So the actual improbability (number of possibilities) of a codon (producing a specific amino acid) is on average (4^3)/(3.15 = avge redundancy) x 2^3 = 162 (its not exactly 160 because of the 3 non coding stop bits).

DNA is the vehicle of heritable traits so the analysis must be done at that level rather than the level of the protein itself to properly address the evolutionary algorithm. The charility or handedness of all DNA bases {R form} cannot be ignored, even though random mutations do not affect charility. The protein machinery of the cell which exclusively produces {R form} DNA bases is also a product of the evolutionary algorithm by that theory so the entropy cost of that aspect of the end state must be included in the total calculation.

So for myoglobin with 153 amino acids the improbability at the DNA codon level is 162^153 = 10^338 (written 1e338). The question is can the evolutionary process account for this?

I do hope you have a very nice day..

7.5 Evolution and Entropy

I had a long discussion with a mathematician who turned out to be a NASA rocket scientist! He said the outcome of any random event is only improbable if you are trying to specify it beforehand. If you shake 100 dice in a box you are certain to get something and whatever it is would be just as impossible to predict. True but what are the implications of this for evolution?

1. You don't care what outcome you get
2. Natural selection avoids the rules of cumulative probability over a long series of events by biasing less probable outcomes to produce a result not attainable without it
3. It does not matter how many possibilities there are.

Which leads to the idea that any change toward preservation however small will through population demographics will tend to get preserved and that is all you need for evolution. Well not quite..

The first implies that during the course of design (or evolution) there is no point where prior specification will become necessary, demonstrating ignorance of technology. The second implies you can make the impossible possible, demonstrating ignorance of probability. The third implies the second law has nothing to say about the process, demonstrating ignorance of physics, which is all rather disappointing for a rocket scientist I would think!

To take the first, all technology (machines) are based on cooperating parts with complex interfaces implying constrains on the interfaces for all parts of the machine. The constraints get tighter as the design progresses. It is just as true of biotechnology as for the man made kind even mouse traps.

As for the second it is a basic axiom of probability that for two or more independent events the probability of a particular outcome is the product of their individual probabilities. It is not affected by the time it takes or the order of the events or anything you do after the event.

On the third, if its made of atoms the second law applies no exceptions (refer 7.2). It is universally acknowledged any process resulting in an entropy drop is like a debt which must be payed for with interest. It is scientifically fraudulent to admit the staggering improbability of biotechnology and fail to account for the entropy debt or brush it off with ignorant statements about floods of energy.

So my task here is really about whether or not evolution passes this test or heaven forbid is actually falsified by the test!

Have a cuppa.. or something stronger.. and a very nice day..