Friday, December 11, 2015

Appendix 6.1 Dr J Verifies

So my 100 coin toss model of evolution turns out to be a reasonable illustration of how selection and replication work. By adjusting the parameters of the model it should be possible to plot the 2nd Law boundary which ultimately limits what any natural process can achieve.. Which is what Fred Hoyle actually showed in "The Mathematics of Evolution".. He said..

"evolution is correct in the small but not in the large.."  Introduction p6

Dr J's program of my model shows that my assumption: selection and reproduction have no effect on the probability of the final outcome is wrong!

However by mapping the effect of selection and reproduction I may be able to establish a relationship between (+ve mutation rates ~ selection strength ~ reproductive success) to the limits imposed by the 2nd Law. This should be possible because I discovered the unique number which sets the boundary for violation of the second law in any system where the improbability can be calculated (like with DNA). It may in the end require a fairly rigorous statistical approach but overall to date my 2nd Law boundary theory indicates it should agree quite well with Fred Hoyle's results in "The Mathematics of Evolution"..

So was my 'falsification' Ch 9 correct or not.. As far as the (corrected) program of the model goes.. I have to say not yet for evolution by natural selection, (but it should falsify the abio-genesis protein first model).

I now need to summarize the basic principles underlying all this..

(1)   The total improbability of any state of matter is quantified by its absolute entropy. For any ordered state of matter it represents the decrease in entropy from the state of complete disorder (equilibrium).  All forms of order are included.. physical (structure) and logical (information).

(2)   By the second law there must be a corresponding increase in entropy of the surroundings of the system which must be a direct consequence of the processes and events that created the state of order.

(3)   The rule of conditional probability allows the process to be analysed in parts which themselves must each obey the second law when all contributing processes are included.

Richard Feynman 1975 Caltech address warned scientists "before going public consider every conceivable way we might be wrong"..
Popular Science May 2015 "Nothing but the Truth".. strongly agree.

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