Appendix 5.1 Richard Dawkins Verifies

This is all about an experiment Richard Dawkins did with an audience of young people to demonstrate improbable events happen all the time and the inclination to see the supernatural is in fact illogical.. Ref: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1TxH0zf07w]..

So lets see what this same experiment reveals when analysed as to conformance with the second law.. the basis of my falsification.. First I must say I agree the outcome is in no way supernatural.. and you do end up with an apparently remarkable result.. in the case given guessing 8 times in a row the outcome of the toss of a coin. But what does this actually demonstrate..?

Lets take the number of people participating as  = N
the number of correct guesses in a row  =  n

The total number of guess 'events' = N + N/2 + N/4 + ... +N/2^(n-1)  =  (lets call this) E

                (n) 
E =  N .  \                1          {ie N x (sum of the series  1/2^(n-1)  (n) times)}
               /             2^(m-1)
               m=1

Assuming half sit down after each toss of the coin.. because they got it wrong.

Now my falsification is based on the observation that the number of random changes (events or tosses of coin) required on average to get a certain improbable outcome is how the process balances the entropy decrease of that outcome (state) with an entropy increase in the surroundings. Its the entropy cost of the low entropy state which by the second law must be paid by that process.

So now we have the end result being the low entropy state of 8 correct guesses in a row which is equivalent to tossing 8 heads in a row or tossing 8 coins and ending up with 8 heads.

The probability of this outcome = 1/2^8  (or 1/2^n for 'n' correct guesses in a row)

So the question is, what is the audience size N to give enough events to pay the cost..?